Executive Summary
The Caribbean hotel market presents a unique mix of challenges and opportunities for developers and investors. 2024 has been marked by fluctuating economic conditions, limitations on construction financing, an increased cost of equity, and of course a continued threat caused by climate change. Fortunately, the post Covid19 demand travel has continued with record ADR and occupancy rates. In these uncertain times, having actionable market data is key to successful investment and development. At AG&T we explore the value of comprehensive market studies, providing a roadmap for developers, investors, and asset managers to capitalize on emerging opportunities.
In today’s complex and competitive hotel development landscape, particularly in the Caribbean, having real-time, data-driven insights is critical for success. Developers and investors who rely on outdated or incomplete information risk making costly decisions. A well-executed market study provides the essential intelligence needed to assess opportunities, identify risks, and develop strategic approaches to investment, whether in new developments or the acquisition of distressed assets.
Market Overview
1. Tourism Trends and Data-Driven Insights:
The Caribbean remains one of the most popular tourist destinations globally, but tourism patterns are shifting. Post-Covid19 recovery travel trends reveal a growing preference for boutique, eco-friendly, and experiential hotels over traditional large-scale resorts. A market study provides granular data on these trends, helping developers and investors align with consumer preferences and focus on markets with the highest demand potential.
2. Key Growth Markets Identified Through Market Studies:
– Emerging Markets: A comprehensive study identifies little known or explored market areas. At AG&T we specifically look for new trends in destinations as well as existing markets that are growing beyond their “tried and true.” For example, locations like Sint Maarten is demonstrating great growth opportunities due to rising demand for unique and luxury travel experiences.
– Distressed Assets: Market studies pinpoint distressed assets. These reports offer actionable insights on pricing, market saturation, and infrastructure development, enabling investors to make informed decisions on acquisition and repositioning strategies.
3. The Value of Local Market Intelligence:
While national or island-wide trends are useful, localized data is essential for accurately assessing a hotel project’s potential. A robust market study provides detailed insights at the regional, city, or even neighborhood level, ensuring that developers and investors have a clear picture of demand, competition, and pricing within specific micro-markets.
What a Market Study Provides for Developers and Investors
1. Feasibility and Opportunity Assessment:
– Demand Forecasting: A market study analyzes current and projected demand for hotel rooms in the target market. For example, in regions like St. Maarten or St. Kitts, understanding whether tourism demand is driven by cruise visitors, long-term vacationers, or business travelers can drastically change a project’s design and service offerings.
– Competitive Analysis: Detailed reports compare the competitive landscape, outlining the strengths and weaknesses of existing properties. For instance, a study in the Dominican Republic may reveal that while large resorts are abundant, there’s an unmet demand for boutique, wellness-focused hotels. This insight allows developers to fill a gap in the market.
2. Financial Modeling and Profitability:
– Revenue Projections: Market studies provide data on room rates, occupancy levels, and operating costs in the target market. Financial models help investors calculate expected revenue and ROI under different scenarios. Whether targeting distressed assets in Puerto Rico or new developments in St. Vincent, having accurate financial projections is key to securing financing and ensuring long-term profitability.
– Capital Expenditure Insights: For distressed properties, market studies identify necessary capital improvements and calculate the potential return on those investments. Investors can make informed decisions on whether rehabilitation costs will result in the desired market repositioning and profitability.
3. Site Selection and Location Analysis:
– Site-Specific Data: A market study dives deep into location-specific factors, such as tourism patterns, infrastructure development, and government incentives. For example, a report on
– Accessibility and Market Entry Barriers: Islands that require two stops have historically been slow to attract new hospitality inventory. Challenges in getting to the island is a crucial factor for a developer. However, what happens when travel length shifts due to “work-at-home” trends? A market study will assess the impact of air travel, ferry services, or visa requirements on potential guest numbers as well as the absorption of for sale condo-hotels.
4. Regulatory and Tax Environment:
– Navigating Local Laws: Each Caribbean nation has its own set of legal, tax, and regulatory challenges. Market studies include detailed breakdowns of local regulations, such as property taxes, hotel licensing, and foreign investment restrictions. Developers and investors benefit from understanding these complexities before committing resources to a project.
– Incentive Programs: Many Caribbean nations offer tax breaks or incentives for hotel development, especially for projects that boost local employment or align with sustainability goals. Market studies identify these opportunities, allowing investors to capitalize on favorable policies.
Competitive Positioning: Why AG&T Market Studies Stand Out
1. Tailored Insights:
Unlike generalized reports, AG&T market studies are customized to the client’s specific project goals and investment criteria. Whether you’re acquiring a distressed asset or launching a new hotel development, we offer data-driven insights designed to optimize your decision-making process.
2. Thirty-one years of Experience in the Caribbean:
With over 30 years of experience in Caribbean hotel development, AG&T leverages deep relationships and on-the-ground expertise to provide unparalleled market intelligence. Our studies incorporate both quantitative data and qualitative insights from local stakeholders, ensuring a comprehensive view of each market.
3. Proprietary Data Access:
Our clients benefit from access to proprietary datasets that are not available through public sources. This includes up-to-date information on hotel performance metrics, traveler demographics, and competitive pricing data—ensuring that you have the most current and relevant information at your fingertips.
4. Miami Based
Our main offices are based in Miami, Florida. Miami is the capital of the Caribbean and allows us to tap into a vast array of events, conferences, thought leadership programs, and associations.
Service Offerings for Market Studies
1. Basic Market Study Package: To buy or not to buy
– Focus on feasibility and high-level market analysis.
– Includes demand assessment, competitive analysis, and location data.
Ideal for preliminary project evaluations or investors seeking initial insights into a market.
2. Foundational Market Study Package: Creating the Highest and Best Use development
– Comprehensive analysis, including financial modeling, revenue projections, and site selection guidance.
– Detailed breakdown of regulatory and tax environments.
– In-depth competitive landscape analysis and investor reports.
– Site planning and design recommendations
– Sales and marketing guidance in terms of pricing inventory, rental program, ROI, and HOA, and hotel brand recommendations.
Ideal for investors and developers looking for a detailed blueprint to guide decision-making for their internal team.
3. Advanced Market Study Package: Building the Capital Stack
– Implement architectural designs into financial modeling
– Establish capital stack requirement
– identify key project metrics, returns, and waterfall structure.
Ideal for investors and developers looking for a presentation focused document to attract capital and construction debt.
Case Study: “Pioneering Luxury: A Case Study on Developing Sint Maarten’s First Five-Star Hotel”
In 2019, AG&T initiated the first of three comprehensive market studies for a 125-acre beachfront parcel at Indigo Bay on the Dutch side of Sint Maarten. The phase one study focused on determining the highest and best use for the land, offering insights into project density, hotel characteristics, and land pricing. Based on this research, AG&T prepared an offering memorandum, which became a key resource for a developer conducting due diligence. As a result, the developer secured an option on the property, marking the initial step towards a major luxury development.
As part of the due diligence process, AG&T conducted a Foundational Comparative Market Study, essential for evaluating the region’s market potential. Since Sint Maarten had not seen a new luxury hotel in decades, AG&T explored 11 distinct luxury hotel projects across key markets, including Anguilla, St. Barths, Turks and Caicos, Cabo San Lucas, Panama, and Costa Rica. The study provided a detailed analysis of the competitive landscape, pricing models, unit size dimensions, and buyer preferences, leading to a full-scale project design. This design phase, supported by architecture, engineering, legal, and marketing teams, resulted in the creation of the Vie L’Ven hotel and residences, complete with carefully chosen hotel brand partners, food and beverage concepts, and spa affiliations.
As the global landscape shifted due to the COVID-19 pandemic, AG&T conducted a third and In-depth Market Study just prior to the project launch in February 2024. This study revealed key changes in pricing metrics, amenity preferences, and inventory release strategies, helping to align the development with the evolving needs of the post-pandemic travel and tourism market.
“We are very excited about the Vie L’Ven Hotel and Residences development. The research conducted by AG&T helped us better define the project scope and fine tune the condo-hotel unit offering.” Jordan Debrincat, VP Altree development.
By February 2024, Vie L’Ven broke ground. The first phase of condo-hotel residences have been successfully marketed and sold, positioning the development as a premier luxury destination in Sint Maarten.
Conclusion: The Strategic Value of a Market Study
In today’s competitive and fast-changing Caribbean hotel market, having access to reliable, actionable data is more critical than ever. A well-executed market study provides developers and investors with the insights needed to navigate challenges, capitalize on opportunities, and make confident, informed decisions. Whether you are looking to acquire distressed assets, enter new markets, or reposition existing properties, AG&T provides tailored market studies offer the strategic guidance needed to ensure long-term success.
About AG&T
AG&T is a leading Caribbean development and advisory founded in 1993. We have offices in Miami, Palm Beach, and Puerto Rico. AG&T concentrates in creating resort developments, island projects, and master planned communities. We have a track record in over 18 Caribbean islands in 55 projects that is valued at 1.5 Billion USD. Our key services include:
• Hotel Development and planning
• Commercial Real Estate Sales
• Capital Advisory (Equity | Debt)
To learn more contact us at amanda@agandt.com or visit our web site www.agandt.com.