Investing Through Uncertainty: Institutional Capital’s View of Caribbean Hospitality During COVID-19

Investing Through Uncertainty: Institutional Capital's View of Caribbean Hospitality During COVID-19

 

At the height of the COVID-19 pandemic, uncertainty gripped the global hospitality industry.

Hotels throughout the Caribbean stood nearly empty. International travel had come to an unprecedented halt. Lenders were reassessing risk, investment activity had slowed dramatically, and developers around the world were asking the same question:

What does the future of hospitality look like?

To help answer that question, AG&T and the Urban Land Institute (ULI) Caribbean Roundtable hosted a timely conversation with Nicholas Hecker, Executive Managing Director and Chief Investment Officer of Sculptor Real Estate, moderated by Adam Greenfader, Chairman of AG&T and former Chair of the ULI Caribbean Council.

The discussion provided a rare institutional perspective during one of the most uncertain periods the hospitality industry had ever experienced.

Looking Beyond the Crisis

While much of the industry focused on immediate operational challenges, the conversation explored a much broader question:

How do long-term institutional investors evaluate hospitality during periods of extreme uncertainty?

Nicholas Hecker shared insights into how sophisticated investment managers distinguish between short-term market disruption and long-term value creation. Rather than reacting solely to the immediate crisis, institutional investors continued to evaluate demographic trends, destination quality, replacement costs, barriers to entry, and the long-term fundamentals supporting hospitality investment.

The message was clear.

The pandemic represented an extraordinary disruption—but not the end of the hospitality industry.

Confidence in Caribbean Hospitality

The Caribbean entered the pandemic with some of the strongest tourism fundamentals in the world.

Exceptional natural assets, limited beachfront supply, growing global demand for experiential travel, and proximity to North American markets continued to make the region attractive from a long-term investment perspective.

The discussion emphasized that while transaction activity had slowed, high-quality destinations would likely recover first as travelers increasingly sought open-air environments, wellness experiences, and lower-density resort communities.

Many of those observations proved remarkably accurate.

In the years that followed, the Caribbean experienced record tourism recovery, rising average daily room rates, increased luxury development, and renewed institutional investment.

Institutional Capital Today

Since that conversation, Sculptor Real Estate has continued to expand one of the world’s leading alternative real estate investment platforms.

Today, the firm has raised approximately $14.5 billion in capital across opportunistic equity, credit, and long-term investment strategies, with investments representing more than $30 billion in enterprise value across hospitality, resorts, gaming, marinas, specialty real estate, infrastructure, and other alternative asset classes.

The firm’s continued focus on experiential real estate reflects growing institutional confidence in sectors closely aligned with the Caribbean’s long-term strengths.

AG&T’s Commitment to Industry Leadership

One of AG&T’s objectives throughout the pandemic was to ensure that Caribbean developers, investors, lenders, and hospitality professionals remained connected to the world’s leading thinkers.

Rather than allowing uncertainty to halt the conversation, AG&T organized a series of virtual discussions featuring executives from global investment firms, hotel brands, multilateral development banks, tourism organizations, lenders, and government agencies.

These conversations helped industry participants better understand how global capital was responding to unprecedented market conditions while providing valuable insights into the recovery that would eventually follow.

Looking Back

Viewed today, this discussion serves as an important historical snapshot. It captured institutional thinking at one of the most uncertain moments in modern hospitality history.

More importantly, it demonstrated that experienced investors were already looking beyond the immediate crisis and focusing on the long-term fundamentals that continue to drive Caribbean tourism today.

For AG&T, the conversation reinforced a principle that has guided our work for more than three decades:  Markets experience cycles. Hospitality evolves. Capital adapts.

But exceptional destinations supported by thoughtful planning, resilient infrastructure, and long-term vision continue to attract investment.

The Caribbean’s recovery over the past several years has validated that perspective—and positioned the region for a new generation of hospitality investment.

Are Hotels Coming Back to The Caribbean?

Are Hotels Comming Back Caribbean

The Future of Caribbean Hospitality: Are Hotels Coming Back?

The COVID-19 pandemic brought the global hospitality industry to an unprecedented standstill. International travel halted almost overnight, hotel occupancies reached historic lows, and owners, operators, lenders, and investors were forced to rethink nearly every aspect of the business. For the Caribbean—a region where tourism is one of the primary drivers of economic growth—the stakes could not have been higher.

Recognizing the need for informed dialogue during this period of uncertainty, AG&T partnered with the Urban Land Institute (ULI) Caribbean Council to convene some of the hospitality industry’s most respected leaders for an important discussion: “Are Hotels Coming Back to the Caribbean?”

The objective was not simply to forecast a recovery, but to examine how the hospitality industry was adapting, where capital was flowing, and what opportunities would emerge as travel eventually returned.

The panel brought together an exceptional group of industry leaders representing every major segment of the hospitality ecosystem:

  • Adam Greenfader, Managing Partner, AG&T

  • Alejandro Zozaya, Executive Chairman, Apple Leisure Group

  • Christian Charre, Senior Vice President, CBRE Hotels

  • Chris Cylke, Chief Operating Officer, REVPAR International

  • Nicholas Hecker, Executive Managing Director & Chief Investment Officer, Sculptor Real Estate

Together, the panel offered perspectives from development, hotel operations, institutional investment, brokerage, valuation, and lending—providing one of the most comprehensive discussions on the future of Caribbean hospitality during one of the industry’s most challenging periods.

 

Three Questions That Defined the Recovery

 

1. What hotel transactions were taking place during the pandemic?

While many investors initially adopted a wait-and-see approach, the panel observed that sophisticated capital was already positioning itself for the recovery. Institutional investors, private equity firms, and opportunity funds were actively evaluating distressed assets, recapitalizations, and long-term acquisition opportunities throughout the Caribbean.

Rather than signaling a collapse in the hospitality sector, transaction activity reflected a repricing of risk and the belief that Caribbean tourism fundamentals would ultimately remain strong.

2. Would the industry experience widespread defaults, acquisitions, and repurposing?

The discussion acknowledged that financial stress was inevitable across portions of the market. However, the panel emphasized that not every hotel would face the same outcome.

Well-capitalized owners, strong brands, and institutional-quality assets were expected to recover more quickly, while other properties would require recapitalization, repositioning, or new ownership. Some hotels would be converted to alternative uses, while others would emerge stronger through strategic renovations and operational improvements.

History has since shown that many of these observations proved remarkably accurate. Although select assets changed hands, the Caribbean avoided the wave of distressed sales that many had feared, as tourism rebounded faster than most analysts had predicted.

3. How was the hospitality industry preparing for Travel 2.0?

Perhaps the most forward-looking conversation centered on how hotels would evolve beyond the pandemic.

Panelists discussed enhanced health and safety standards, contactless technologies, digital guest experiences, flexible operating models, wellness programming, outdoor amenities, sustainability initiatives, and changing traveler expectations.

The consensus was clear: recovery would not simply mean reopening hotels. It would require reimagining the guest experience.

Many of those innovations—from mobile check-in and wellness-focused programming to experiential travel and flexible resort design—have since become permanent features of the hospitality landscape.

 

A Defining Moment for Caribbean Hospitality

Looking back, this conversation represented more than a discussion about surviving a crisis. It marked the beginning of a broader conversation about the future of Caribbean tourism.

The region has since experienced one of the strongest tourism recoveries in the world. Visitor arrivals have surpassed pre-pandemic levels in many destinations, international hotel brands continue expanding throughout the Caribbean, branded residences have become one of the fastest-growing hospitality segments, and institutional capital has returned with renewed confidence.

The long-term fundamentals discussed during the panel—limited beachfront supply, strong leisure demand, expanding luxury travel, and the Caribbean’s enduring global appeal—have continued to support investment throughout the region.

AG&T’s Commitment to Industry Leadership

At AG&T, we believe our role extends beyond advising development projects.

For more than three decades, we have worked to convene conversations that bring together investors, developers, hotel operators, lenders, government officials, and industry organizations to address the opportunities and challenges shaping Caribbean real estate and hospitality.

Through our partnerships with the Urban Land Institute, Bisnow, the Puerto Rico Builders Association, universities, and other industry organizations, AG&T has helped create forums where ideas become strategies and relationships become investments.

The discussion, Are Hotels Coming Back to the Caribbean?, reflected that commitment.

It demonstrated that meaningful leadership is not only about responding to change—it is about helping define what comes next.

As Caribbean hospitality continues to evolve, AG&T remains committed to fostering the dialogue, partnerships, and investment strategies that will shape the region’s next generation of world-class destinations.