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Investing Through Uncertainty: Institutional Capital's View of Caribbean Hospitality During COVID-19

 

At the height of the COVID-19 pandemic, uncertainty gripped the global hospitality industry.

Hotels throughout the Caribbean stood nearly empty. International travel had come to an unprecedented halt. Lenders were reassessing risk, investment activity had slowed dramatically, and developers around the world were asking the same question:

What does the future of hospitality look like?

To help answer that question, AG&T and the Urban Land Institute (ULI) Caribbean Roundtable hosted a timely conversation with Nicholas Hecker, Executive Managing Director and Chief Investment Officer of Sculptor Real Estate, moderated by Adam Greenfader, Chairman of AG&T and former Chair of the ULI Caribbean Council.

The discussion provided a rare institutional perspective during one of the most uncertain periods the hospitality industry had ever experienced.

Looking Beyond the Crisis

While much of the industry focused on immediate operational challenges, the conversation explored a much broader question:

How do long-term institutional investors evaluate hospitality during periods of extreme uncertainty?

Nicholas Hecker shared insights into how sophisticated investment managers distinguish between short-term market disruption and long-term value creation. Rather than reacting solely to the immediate crisis, institutional investors continued to evaluate demographic trends, destination quality, replacement costs, barriers to entry, and the long-term fundamentals supporting hospitality investment.

The message was clear.

The pandemic represented an extraordinary disruption—but not the end of the hospitality industry.

Confidence in Caribbean Hospitality

The Caribbean entered the pandemic with some of the strongest tourism fundamentals in the world.

Exceptional natural assets, limited beachfront supply, growing global demand for experiential travel, and proximity to North American markets continued to make the region attractive from a long-term investment perspective.

The discussion emphasized that while transaction activity had slowed, high-quality destinations would likely recover first as travelers increasingly sought open-air environments, wellness experiences, and lower-density resort communities.

Many of those observations proved remarkably accurate.

In the years that followed, the Caribbean experienced record tourism recovery, rising average daily room rates, increased luxury development, and renewed institutional investment.

Institutional Capital Today

Since that conversation, Sculptor Real Estate has continued to expand one of the world’s leading alternative real estate investment platforms.

Today, the firm has raised approximately $14.5 billion in capital across opportunistic equity, credit, and long-term investment strategies, with investments representing more than $30 billion in enterprise value across hospitality, resorts, gaming, marinas, specialty real estate, infrastructure, and other alternative asset classes.

The firm’s continued focus on experiential real estate reflects growing institutional confidence in sectors closely aligned with the Caribbean’s long-term strengths.

AG&T’s Commitment to Industry Leadership

One of AG&T’s objectives throughout the pandemic was to ensure that Caribbean developers, investors, lenders, and hospitality professionals remained connected to the world’s leading thinkers.

Rather than allowing uncertainty to halt the conversation, AG&T organized a series of virtual discussions featuring executives from global investment firms, hotel brands, multilateral development banks, tourism organizations, lenders, and government agencies.

These conversations helped industry participants better understand how global capital was responding to unprecedented market conditions while providing valuable insights into the recovery that would eventually follow.

Looking Back

Viewed today, this discussion serves as an important historical snapshot. It captured institutional thinking at one of the most uncertain moments in modern hospitality history.

More importantly, it demonstrated that experienced investors were already looking beyond the immediate crisis and focusing on the long-term fundamentals that continue to drive Caribbean tourism today.

For AG&T, the conversation reinforced a principle that has guided our work for more than three decades:  Markets experience cycles. Hospitality evolves. Capital adapts.

But exceptional destinations supported by thoughtful planning, resilient infrastructure, and long-term vision continue to attract investment.

The Caribbean’s recovery over the past several years has validated that perspective—and positioned the region for a new generation of hospitality investment.