Caribbean Capital for Real Estate Markets 2026

Caribbean Capital for Real Estate Markets 2026

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Access to capital has always been one of the defining challenges—and greatest opportunities—for real estate development in the Caribbean. As global financial markets evolve, developers and investors must navigate a rapidly changing capital environment shaped by higher interest rates, tighter lending standards, climate risk, and the emergence of alternative financing sources.

This article was originally published in Uncorrelated Magazine as part of AG&T’s ongoing collaboration with Uncorrelated and EN Capital to explore innovative approaches to financing Caribbean real estate. It reflects AG&T’s commitment to connecting developers, investors, family offices, private credit providers, and institutional capital with opportunities throughout Puerto Rico and the broader Caribbean.

Over the past several years, AG&T has worked closely with Uncorrelated to expand the conversation around alternative investment and real estate finance in the region. As Co-Host of the Uncorrelated Puerto Rico conferences in both 2025 and 2026, AG&T has helped bring together leading allocators, family offices, investment managers, banks, developers, and government leaders to identify new sources of capital and foster strategic partnerships for Caribbean projects.

In this article, Adam Greenfader examines the structural changes affecting Caribbean capital markets—from Basel III regulations and the tightening of commercial lending to the growing role of private credit, family offices, syndicated financing, and mission-driven investment. The article also highlights practical strategies that developers can employ to improve bankability, strengthen capital structures, and position projects for success in today’s increasingly selective financing environment.

As the Caribbean continues to attract global investors seeking diversification and long-term growth, AG&T remains committed to helping clients navigate complex capital markets while building relationships that connect innovative projects with the right sources of equity and debt financing.

(Continue with the original published article.)

By Adam Greenfader, Chair of AG&T,  In collaboration with Nate Whigham, EN Capital

 

Background

Unlocking Caribbean Capital – What’s the lock.

During normal times, the Caribbean region is generally a challenge. The region is highly regulated and has a low risk tolerance from traditional lending. Scale and the vast diversity of the region is always an issue for the larger lenders that want to play in the space.

Bank Failures

In 2023 bank failures and new capital regulations under the Basel III agreements, which we were expecting to force traditional banks to hold more cash reserves.  There is approximately 1 trillion dollars of U.S. commercial paper that will be coming due in the next 12 months.

Historic Money Tightening

While inflation showed signs of easing, the impact of U.S. monetary policy on the Caribbean in 2024 and beyond remained a topic of debate among economists, with some predicting minimal disruption, while others expressed concerns about its potential to affect trade and investment flows in the region.

Last year the U.S. Federal Reserve continued implementing aggressive monetary tightening. This policy aimed to reduce aggregate demand (GDP Growth), leading to a notable slowdown in U.S. economic growth—from 4.9% in Q3 2023 to 1.7% at the end of 2024,

The Cost of Capital

Interest rates (as well as the cost of materials went up) in 2024 started to come down but still high – making it harder for many projects to make their development proformas. A typical hotel construction loan in 2024 might have an 11.5% interest rate with a 55% loan to cost from a traditional construction lender and several points higher from private equity and alternative capital groups like family offices.

Lastly, but certainly not the least of the concerns, insurance costs continue to go up with many lenders seeking ways to mitigate climate risk.

So, while many financial institutions have put their pencils down, other groups are proceeding cautiously today in the Caribbean.

Keys To Capital 2024

There is a consensus that there will be new opportunities in the future for private capital, family offices, private debt funds, and fintech to fill the 2024 Caribbean capital stack.

Stronger Sponsors and Guarantees

As rates are going up, Caribbean financial institutions also seem to be seeking stronger sponsors and guarantees. The group felt that working with known sponsors was a top priority. In other words, developers that have experience in the Caribbean region with the specific product type. More importantly, there was ample talk about creating multiple layers of capital protection. This includes full recourse loans (i.e., personal guarantees) as well robust completion guarantees and bonds. One participant was quoted as saying,

“we are looking for every single type of guarantee possible today.”

Land Lift is Dead

Lenders seem to only want to underwrite the original cash basis of the land today and not give the sponsor any credit for the increased value.

Condo-hotel Presales

On the hospitality side, one participant mentioned that they like to see condo-hotel projects because pre-sales can mitigate risk. In addition to demonstrating market acceptance, condo-hotel presales reduce the overall total capital requirements. The discussed presale requirements varied from 35%-65% of the total project.

Syndication of Loans and Risk Bifurcation

As lenders seek to mitigate risk, Caribbean capital sources are taking smaller bites of the proverbial capital stack. On the debt side, hotel deals are getting done by bifurcating or dividing the loan into parts. It is common in today’s market for banks to be syndicating their loans or splitting them up with other financial institutions. One of the participants mentioned that they recently closed a 200-million dollar hospitality construction loan by dividing the loan into two parts: capital for the hotel and a separate debt instrument for the condo-hotel uses.

 

Mission Driven Projects

While there is a general slowdown of construction lending in general, mission driven developments still are attractive. Mission driven developments can be defined as projects or locations that have unique stories to tell. Below are the four of the top mission driven locations:

About AG&T

AG&T is a real estate development and consulting company based in Miami, Florida with a track record that spans over 52 real estate projects in Puerto Rico, the Caribbean, Central America, and the United States. Core services include Hospitality Development, Investment Sales, Strategic Planning, and Capital Advisory (Equity | Debt). www.agandt.com

 

Three Years Later: Why Puerto Rico Now – Version 2.0

When I released the first edition of Why Puerto Rico Now three years ago, the island was just beginning to emerge from one of the most challenging chapters in its modern history. Since then,*Puerto Rico has undergone a remarkable transformation—economically, demographically, and institutionally.

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Unlocking Opportunities in the Caribbean Hotel Market: Strategic Approaches for Developers and Investors 

Market Research AG&T

Market Research AG&T

 

Executive Summary

The Caribbean hotel market presents a unique mix of challenges and opportunities for developers and investors.  2024 has been marked by fluctuating economic conditions, limitations on construction financing, an increased cost of equity, and of course a continued threat caused by climate change. Fortunately, the post Covid19 demand travel has continued with record ADR and occupancy rates. In these uncertain times, having actionable market data is key to successful investment and development. At AG&T we  explore the value of comprehensive market studies, providing a roadmap for developers, investors, and asset managers to capitalize on emerging opportunities. 

In today’s complex and competitive hotel development landscape, particularly in the Caribbean, having real-time, data-driven insights is critical for success. Developers and investors who rely on outdated or incomplete information risk making costly decisions. A well-executed market study provides the essential intelligence needed to assess opportunities, identify risks, and develop strategic approaches to investment, whether in new developments or the acquisition of distressed assets.

 

Market Overview

1. Tourism Trends and Data-Driven Insights:

The Caribbean remains one of the most popular tourist destinations globally, but tourism patterns are shifting. Post-Covid19 recovery travel trends reveal a growing preference for boutique, eco-friendly, and experiential hotels over traditional large-scale resorts. A market study provides granular data on these trends, helping developers and investors align with consumer preferences and focus on markets with the highest demand potential.

2. Key Growth Markets Identified Through Market Studies:

– Emerging Markets: A comprehensive study identifies little known or explored market areas. At AG&T we specifically look for new trends in destinations as well as existing markets that are growing beyond their “tried and true.” For example,  locations like Sint Maarten is demonstrating great  growth opportunities due to rising demand for unique and luxury travel experiences.

– Distressed Assets: Market studies pinpoint distressed assets. These reports offer actionable insights on pricing, market saturation, and infrastructure development, enabling investors to make informed decisions on acquisition and repositioning strategies.

3. The Value of Local Market Intelligence:

While national or island-wide trends are useful, localized data is essential for accurately assessing a hotel project’s potential. A robust market study provides detailed insights at the regional, city, or even neighborhood level, ensuring that developers and investors have a clear picture of demand, competition, and pricing within specific micro-markets.

What a Market Study Provides for Developers and Investors

1. Feasibility and Opportunity Assessment:

– Demand Forecasting: A market study analyzes current and projected demand for hotel rooms in the target market. For example, in regions like St. Maarten or St. Kitts, understanding whether tourism demand is driven by cruise visitors, long-term vacationers, or business travelers can drastically change a project’s design and service offerings.

– Competitive Analysis: Detailed reports compare the competitive landscape, outlining the strengths and weaknesses of existing properties. For instance, a study in the Dominican Republic may reveal that while large resorts are abundant, there’s an unmet demand for boutique, wellness-focused hotels. This insight allows developers to fill a gap in the market.

2. Financial Modeling and Profitability:

– Revenue Projections: Market studies provide data on room rates, occupancy levels, and operating costs in the target market. Financial models help investors calculate expected revenue and ROI under different scenarios. Whether targeting distressed assets in Puerto Rico or new developments in St. Vincent, having accurate financial projections is key to securing financing and ensuring long-term profitability.

– Capital Expenditure Insights: For distressed properties, market studies identify necessary capital improvements and calculate the potential return on those investments. Investors can make informed decisions on whether rehabilitation costs will result in the desired market repositioning and profitability.

3. Site Selection and Location Analysis:

– Site-Specific Data: A market study dives deep into location-specific factors, such as tourism patterns, infrastructure development, and government incentives. For example, a report on

– Accessibility and Market Entry Barriers: Islands that require two stops have historically been slow to attract new hospitality inventory. Challenges in getting to the island is a crucial factor for a developer. However, what happens when travel length shifts due to “work-at-home” trends?  A market study will assess the impact of air travel, ferry services, or visa requirements on potential guest numbers as well as the absorption of for sale condo-hotels. 

4. Regulatory and Tax Environment:

– Navigating Local Laws: Each Caribbean nation has its own set of legal, tax, and regulatory challenges. Market studies include detailed breakdowns of local regulations, such as property taxes, hotel licensing, and foreign investment restrictions. Developers and investors benefit from understanding these complexities before committing resources to a project.

– Incentive Programs: Many Caribbean nations offer tax breaks or incentives for hotel development, especially for projects that boost local employment or align with sustainability goals. Market studies identify these opportunities, allowing investors to capitalize on favorable policies.

Competitive Positioning: Why AG&T Market Studies Stand Out

1. Tailored Insights:

Unlike generalized reports, AG&T  market studies are customized to the client’s specific project goals and investment criteria. Whether you’re acquiring a distressed asset or launching a new hotel development, we offer data-driven insights designed to optimize your decision-making process.

2. Thirty-one years of Experience in the Caribbean:

With over 30 years of experience in Caribbean hotel development, AG&T leverages deep relationships and on-the-ground expertise to provide unparalleled market intelligence. Our studies incorporate both quantitative data and qualitative insights from local stakeholders, ensuring a comprehensive view of each market.

3. Proprietary Data Access:

Our clients benefit from access to proprietary datasets that are not available through public sources. This includes up-to-date information on hotel performance metrics, traveler demographics, and competitive pricing data—ensuring that you have the most current and relevant information at your fingertips.

4. Miami Based

Our main offices are based in Miami, Florida. Miami is the capital of the Caribbean and allows us to tap into a vast array of events, conferences, thought leadership programs, and associations. 

Service Offerings for Market Studies

1. Basic Market Study Package: To buy or not to buy 

– Focus on feasibility and high-level market analysis.

– Includes demand assessment, competitive analysis, and location data.

Ideal for preliminary project evaluations or investors seeking initial insights into a market.

2. Foundational Market Study Package: Creating the Highest and Best Use development 

– Comprehensive analysis, including financial modeling, revenue projections, and site selection guidance.

– Detailed breakdown of regulatory and tax environments.

– In-depth competitive landscape analysis and investor reports.

– Site planning and design recommendations

–  Sales and marketing guidance in terms of pricing inventory, rental program, ROI, and HOA, and hotel brand recommendations.  

Ideal for investors and developers looking for a detailed blueprint to guide decision-making for their internal team. 

3. Advanced Market Study Package: Building the Capital Stack

– Implement architectural designs into financial modeling

– Establish capital stack requirement

– identify key project metrics, returns, and waterfall structure. 

Ideal for investors and developers looking for a presentation focused document to attract capital and construction debt. 

 

Case Study:  “Pioneering Luxury: A Case Study on Developing Sint Maarten’s First Five-Star Hotel”

In 2019, AG&T initiated the first of three comprehensive market studies for a 125-acre beachfront parcel at Indigo Bay on the Dutch side of Sint Maarten. The phase one study focused on determining the highest and best use for the land, offering insights into project density, hotel characteristics, and land pricing. Based on this research, AG&T prepared an offering memorandum, which became a key resource for a developer conducting due diligence. As a result, the developer secured an option on the property, marking the initial step towards a major luxury development.

As part of the due diligence process, AG&T conducted a Foundational Comparative Market Study, essential for evaluating the region’s market potential. Since Sint Maarten had not seen a new luxury hotel in decades, AG&T explored 11 distinct luxury hotel projects across key markets, including Anguilla, St. Barths, Turks and Caicos, Cabo San Lucas, Panama, and Costa Rica. The study provided a detailed analysis of the competitive landscape, pricing models, unit size dimensions, and buyer preferences, leading to a full-scale project design. This design phase, supported by architecture, engineering, legal, and marketing teams, resulted in the creation of the Vie L’Ven hotel and residences, complete with carefully chosen hotel brand partners, food and beverage concepts, and spa affiliations.

As the global landscape shifted due to the COVID-19 pandemic, AG&T conducted a third and In-depth Market Study just prior to the project launch in February 2024. This study revealed key changes in pricing metrics, amenity preferences, and inventory release strategies, helping to align the development with the evolving needs of the post-pandemic travel and tourism market. 

“We are very excited about the Vie L’Ven Hotel and Residences development.  The research conducted by AG&T helped us better define the project scope and fine tune the condo-hotel unit offering.”  Jordan Debrincat, VP Altree development.  

By February 2024, Vie L’Ven broke ground. The first phase of condo-hotel residences have been successfully marketed and sold, positioning the development as a premier luxury destination in Sint Maarten.

Conclusion: The Strategic Value of a Market Study

In today’s competitive and fast-changing Caribbean hotel market, having access to reliable, actionable data is more critical than ever. A well-executed market study provides developers and investors with the insights needed to navigate challenges, capitalize on opportunities, and make confident, informed decisions. Whether you are looking to acquire distressed assets, enter new markets, or reposition existing properties, AG&T provides  tailored market studies offer the strategic guidance needed to ensure long-term success.

 

 

About AG&T

AG&T is a leading Caribbean development and advisory founded in  1993. We have offices in Miami, Palm Beach, and Puerto Rico. AG&T concentrates in creating resort developments, island projects, and master planned communities. We have a track record in over 18 Caribbean islands in 55 projects that is valued at 1.5 Billion USD.  Our key services include:

• Hotel Development and planning

• Commercial Real Estate Sales

• Capital Advisory (Equity | Debt)

To learn more contact us at amanda@agandt.com or visit our web site www.agandt.com.