Unlocking Opportunities in the Caribbean Hotel Market: Strategic Approaches for Developers and Investors 

Market Research AG&T

Market Research AG&T

 

Executive Summary

The Caribbean hotel market presents a unique mix of challenges and opportunities for developers and investors.  2024 has been marked by fluctuating economic conditions, limitations on construction financing, an increased cost of equity, and of course a continued threat caused by climate change. Fortunately, the post Covid19 demand travel has continued with record ADR and occupancy rates. In these uncertain times, having actionable market data is key to successful investment and development. At AG&T we  explore the value of comprehensive market studies, providing a roadmap for developers, investors, and asset managers to capitalize on emerging opportunities. 

In today’s complex and competitive hotel development landscape, particularly in the Caribbean, having real-time, data-driven insights is critical for success. Developers and investors who rely on outdated or incomplete information risk making costly decisions. A well-executed market study provides the essential intelligence needed to assess opportunities, identify risks, and develop strategic approaches to investment, whether in new developments or the acquisition of distressed assets.

 

Market Overview

1. Tourism Trends and Data-Driven Insights:

The Caribbean remains one of the most popular tourist destinations globally, but tourism patterns are shifting. Post-Covid19 recovery travel trends reveal a growing preference for boutique, eco-friendly, and experiential hotels over traditional large-scale resorts. A market study provides granular data on these trends, helping developers and investors align with consumer preferences and focus on markets with the highest demand potential.

2. Key Growth Markets Identified Through Market Studies:

– Emerging Markets: A comprehensive study identifies little known or explored market areas. At AG&T we specifically look for new trends in destinations as well as existing markets that are growing beyond their “tried and true.” For example,  locations like Sint Maarten is demonstrating great  growth opportunities due to rising demand for unique and luxury travel experiences.

– Distressed Assets: Market studies pinpoint distressed assets. These reports offer actionable insights on pricing, market saturation, and infrastructure development, enabling investors to make informed decisions on acquisition and repositioning strategies.

3. The Value of Local Market Intelligence:

While national or island-wide trends are useful, localized data is essential for accurately assessing a hotel project’s potential. A robust market study provides detailed insights at the regional, city, or even neighborhood level, ensuring that developers and investors have a clear picture of demand, competition, and pricing within specific micro-markets.

What a Market Study Provides for Developers and Investors

1. Feasibility and Opportunity Assessment:

– Demand Forecasting: A market study analyzes current and projected demand for hotel rooms in the target market. For example, in regions like St. Maarten or St. Kitts, understanding whether tourism demand is driven by cruise visitors, long-term vacationers, or business travelers can drastically change a project’s design and service offerings.

– Competitive Analysis: Detailed reports compare the competitive landscape, outlining the strengths and weaknesses of existing properties. For instance, a study in the Dominican Republic may reveal that while large resorts are abundant, there’s an unmet demand for boutique, wellness-focused hotels. This insight allows developers to fill a gap in the market.

2. Financial Modeling and Profitability:

– Revenue Projections: Market studies provide data on room rates, occupancy levels, and operating costs in the target market. Financial models help investors calculate expected revenue and ROI under different scenarios. Whether targeting distressed assets in Puerto Rico or new developments in St. Vincent, having accurate financial projections is key to securing financing and ensuring long-term profitability.

– Capital Expenditure Insights: For distressed properties, market studies identify necessary capital improvements and calculate the potential return on those investments. Investors can make informed decisions on whether rehabilitation costs will result in the desired market repositioning and profitability.

3. Site Selection and Location Analysis:

– Site-Specific Data: A market study dives deep into location-specific factors, such as tourism patterns, infrastructure development, and government incentives. For example, a report on

– Accessibility and Market Entry Barriers: Islands that require two stops have historically been slow to attract new hospitality inventory. Challenges in getting to the island is a crucial factor for a developer. However, what happens when travel length shifts due to “work-at-home” trends?  A market study will assess the impact of air travel, ferry services, or visa requirements on potential guest numbers as well as the absorption of for sale condo-hotels. 

4. Regulatory and Tax Environment:

– Navigating Local Laws: Each Caribbean nation has its own set of legal, tax, and regulatory challenges. Market studies include detailed breakdowns of local regulations, such as property taxes, hotel licensing, and foreign investment restrictions. Developers and investors benefit from understanding these complexities before committing resources to a project.

– Incentive Programs: Many Caribbean nations offer tax breaks or incentives for hotel development, especially for projects that boost local employment or align with sustainability goals. Market studies identify these opportunities, allowing investors to capitalize on favorable policies.

Competitive Positioning: Why AG&T Market Studies Stand Out

1. Tailored Insights:

Unlike generalized reports, AG&T  market studies are customized to the client’s specific project goals and investment criteria. Whether you’re acquiring a distressed asset or launching a new hotel development, we offer data-driven insights designed to optimize your decision-making process.

2. Thirty-one years of Experience in the Caribbean:

With over 30 years of experience in Caribbean hotel development, AG&T leverages deep relationships and on-the-ground expertise to provide unparalleled market intelligence. Our studies incorporate both quantitative data and qualitative insights from local stakeholders, ensuring a comprehensive view of each market.

3. Proprietary Data Access:

Our clients benefit from access to proprietary datasets that are not available through public sources. This includes up-to-date information on hotel performance metrics, traveler demographics, and competitive pricing data—ensuring that you have the most current and relevant information at your fingertips.

4. Miami Based

Our main offices are based in Miami, Florida. Miami is the capital of the Caribbean and allows us to tap into a vast array of events, conferences, thought leadership programs, and associations. 

Service Offerings for Market Studies

1. Basic Market Study Package: To buy or not to buy 

– Focus on feasibility and high-level market analysis.

– Includes demand assessment, competitive analysis, and location data.

Ideal for preliminary project evaluations or investors seeking initial insights into a market.

2. Foundational Market Study Package: Creating the Highest and Best Use development 

– Comprehensive analysis, including financial modeling, revenue projections, and site selection guidance.

– Detailed breakdown of regulatory and tax environments.

– In-depth competitive landscape analysis and investor reports.

– Site planning and design recommendations

–  Sales and marketing guidance in terms of pricing inventory, rental program, ROI, and HOA, and hotel brand recommendations.  

Ideal for investors and developers looking for a detailed blueprint to guide decision-making for their internal team. 

3. Advanced Market Study Package: Building the Capital Stack

– Implement architectural designs into financial modeling

– Establish capital stack requirement

– identify key project metrics, returns, and waterfall structure. 

Ideal for investors and developers looking for a presentation focused document to attract capital and construction debt. 

 

Case Study:  “Pioneering Luxury: A Case Study on Developing Sint Maarten’s First Five-Star Hotel”

In 2019, AG&T initiated the first of three comprehensive market studies for a 125-acre beachfront parcel at Indigo Bay on the Dutch side of Sint Maarten. The phase one study focused on determining the highest and best use for the land, offering insights into project density, hotel characteristics, and land pricing. Based on this research, AG&T prepared an offering memorandum, which became a key resource for a developer conducting due diligence. As a result, the developer secured an option on the property, marking the initial step towards a major luxury development.

As part of the due diligence process, AG&T conducted a Foundational Comparative Market Study, essential for evaluating the region’s market potential. Since Sint Maarten had not seen a new luxury hotel in decades, AG&T explored 11 distinct luxury hotel projects across key markets, including Anguilla, St. Barths, Turks and Caicos, Cabo San Lucas, Panama, and Costa Rica. The study provided a detailed analysis of the competitive landscape, pricing models, unit size dimensions, and buyer preferences, leading to a full-scale project design. This design phase, supported by architecture, engineering, legal, and marketing teams, resulted in the creation of the Vie L’Ven hotel and residences, complete with carefully chosen hotel brand partners, food and beverage concepts, and spa affiliations.

As the global landscape shifted due to the COVID-19 pandemic, AG&T conducted a third and In-depth Market Study just prior to the project launch in February 2024. This study revealed key changes in pricing metrics, amenity preferences, and inventory release strategies, helping to align the development with the evolving needs of the post-pandemic travel and tourism market. 

“We are very excited about the Vie L’Ven Hotel and Residences development.  The research conducted by AG&T helped us better define the project scope and fine tune the condo-hotel unit offering.”  Jordan Debrincat, VP Altree development.  

By February 2024, Vie L’Ven broke ground. The first phase of condo-hotel residences have been successfully marketed and sold, positioning the development as a premier luxury destination in Sint Maarten.

Conclusion: The Strategic Value of a Market Study

In today’s competitive and fast-changing Caribbean hotel market, having access to reliable, actionable data is more critical than ever. A well-executed market study provides developers and investors with the insights needed to navigate challenges, capitalize on opportunities, and make confident, informed decisions. Whether you are looking to acquire distressed assets, enter new markets, or reposition existing properties, AG&T provides  tailored market studies offer the strategic guidance needed to ensure long-term success.

 

 

About AG&T

AG&T is a leading Caribbean development and advisory founded in  1993. We have offices in Miami, Palm Beach, and Puerto Rico. AG&T concentrates in creating resort developments, island projects, and master planned communities. We have a track record in over 18 Caribbean islands in 55 projects that is valued at 1.5 Billion USD.  Our key services include:

• Hotel Development and planning

• Commercial Real Estate Sales

• Capital Advisory (Equity | Debt)

To learn more contact us at amanda@agandt.com or visit our web site www.agandt.com

November 13 – CHICOS Conference in Barbados

The Caribbean Hotel Investment Conference & Operations Summit (CHICOS) is reputed the premier hospitality conference in the region. Embarking on its 13th edition, CHICOS brings together over 300 regional and international investors and operators, as well as the region’s leading decision makers. Also participating as attendees or speakers are governmental representatives, opinion leaders, developers, bankers and other lenders, tourism officials, investment funds, hotel brand executives, individuals/companies seeking investors for their tourism projects, franchise and operations companies, public and private institutions, consultants, advisors and architects and designers.

The Caribbean Hotel Investment Conference & Operations Summit (CHICOS) is reputed the premier hospitality conference in the region. Embarking on its 13th edition, CHICOS brings together over 300 regional and international investors and operators, as well as the region’s leading decision makers. Also participating as attendees or speakers are governmental representatives, opinion leaders, developers, bankers and other lenders, tourism officials, investment funds, hotel brand executives, individuals/companies seeking investors for their tourism projects, franchise and operations companies, public and private institutions, consultants, advisors and architects and designers.

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October 9-10 – PUERTO RICO BUILDERS ASSOCIATION 51ST ANNUAL CONVENTION

Puerto Rico Builders Conference 2024

Join us for the Puerto Rico Builders Association 51st Annual Convention, an exciting event that brings together industry professionals, inspiring speakers, and a multitude of exhibits. Taking place on October 9-10, 2024, this two-day convention offers a unique opportunity to delve into relevant topics, engage in valuable networking activities, and stay abreast of the latest trends and resources. With high-profile speakers and a variety of exhibits, this convention promises to be an invaluable experience that you won’t want to miss. Learn more about this engaging event and mark your calendar for an unforgettable experience!

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September 24-25 – CARIF 2025 Financing For Caribbean Infraestructure

CARIF 2024

Looking to secure financing solutions for Caribbean projects? Don’t miss CARIF 2025 Financing For Caribbean Infrastructure on September 24-25 at Coconut Grove’s luxurious Ritz Carlton. Discover the new players in investment funds and sovereign wealth funds, and explore their appetite for collaboration. Uncover the opportunities for regional commercial lenders and multilateral development banks to partner with you. Dive into the latest trends in financial models for infrastructure development and the driving forces behind them. Above all, uncover the elusive investment opportunities waiting for you in this dynamic industry. Join us to propel your investments to new heights!

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September 11- ULI Roundtable “Branded Residences in Caribbean: Leveraging Big Brands for Higher NOI

ULI Roundtable "Branded Residences: Leveraging Big Brands for Higher NOI in Caribbean Resorts."
ULI Roundtable "Branded Residences: Leveraging Big Brands for Higher NOI in Caribbean Resorts."

Ready to build your next branded residences project in the Caribbean?

Join us for our next ULI Roundtable “Branded Residences: Leveraging Big Brands for Higher NOI in Caribbean Resorts.” 

Date and time – September 11, 2024 from 4-6pm

Location (in-person) – Bilzin Sumberg, 1450 Brickell Ave 23rd floor, Miami, FL 33131

Register Here: https://seflorida.uli.org/events/detail/CCAFB183-97C4-4C16-BD49-AF9FC2C0B0EA/

Three big take-aways:

1. Financial Challenges of Building the Capital Stack: Understanding the unique financial considerations and strategies involved in developing branded residences.

2. Sales Impact and Value Proposition: Exploring how branded residences influence sales and identifying where the biggest return on investment can be found.

3. Consumer Lifestyle and Experience: Discussing the impact of branded residences on consumer lifestyle choices and whether these developments lead to a better overall project and experience.

Caribbean Capital Markets Update (2024)

Tim Gifford, the Managing Director, Capital Advisors Latin America of CBRE Investment Banking business speaks with Adam Greenfader, Chair of AG&T about the current state of Caribbean and LATAM capital markets in 2024. 

 

 

 

 

Caribbean Capital Markets Outlook 2024

Caribbean Capital

Caribbean Capital Markets 2024 

By Adam Greenfader, Chair of AG&T and Amanda Staerker, Luxury Development Specialist. 

AG&T recently brought together a group of leading capital experts to discuss the Caribbean capital markets outlook for 2024. The conversation was a closed door session with the names of the participants withheld in order to insure confidentiality. Some of the companies in attendance include CBRE Capital Markets Group, Sion Capital, Greystone, Glide Capital, Regions Bank , Crowdstreet, Citigroup, Ocean Bank, GG Capital Group, Driftwood Capital, Harbour Capital Partners, EnCapital, Ranger Alternative Management, Optimum Bank, and Mullen Capital. 

The U.S. Federal Reserve in 2023 embarked on one of the most aggressive tightening of monetary policies in recent history. The goal was to curtail aggregate demand. The policy was highly successful as growth slowed more than half from 4.9% in Q3 to 2.1% in Q4. While this deceleration in growth should dampen inflation, the consensus about the effects of the tight U.S. monetary policy on the Caribbean in 2024 was mixed.

The good news is that new construction deals are still getting done in the Caribbean. The bad news, is that the cost of capital is going-up. During the conversation, several recent term sheets were discussed, with the group agreeing that a typical hotel construction loan in 2024 might have an 11.5% interest rate with a 55% loan to cost. 

As rates are going up, Caribbean financial institutions also seem to be seeking stronger sponsors and guarantees. The group felt that working with known sponsors was a top priority. In other words, developers that have experience in the Caribbean region with the specific product type. More importantly, there was ample talk about creating multiple layers of capital protection. This includes full recourse loans (i.e., personal guarantees) as well robust completion guarantees and bonds. One participant was quoted as saying, “we are looking for every single type of guarantee possible today.”

Lenders seem to only want to underwrite the original cash basis of the land today and not give the sponsor any credit for the increased value.

On the hospitality side, one participant mentioned that they like to see condo-hotel projects because pre-sales can mitigate risk. In addition to demonstrating market acceptance, condo-hotel presales reduce the overall total capital requirements. The discussed presale requirements varied from 35%-65% of the total project.

As lenders seek to mitigate risk, Caribbean capital sources are taking smaller bites of the proverbial capital stack. On the debt side, hotel deals are getting done by bifurcating or dividing the loan into parts. It is common in today’s market for banks to be syndicating their loans or splitting them up with other financial institutions. One of the participants mentioned that they recently closed a 200-million dollar hospitality construction loan by dividing the loan into two parts: capital for the hotel and a separate debt instrument for the condo-hotel uses.

While there is a general slowdown of construction lending in general, mission driven developments still are attractive. Mission driven developments can be defined as projects or locations that have unique stories to tell. Below are the four of the top mission driven locations: 

1. Mexico, the group discussed how “Near-Shoring” is driving massive investment in industrial facilities from international companies such as Tesla that want to be closer to the U.S. This includes significant involvement from the Chinese. One of the participants stated, “there is 10x the amount of capital for every opportunity in Northern Mexico today”.

2. Guayana, mentioned as “the fastest growing economy in whole word”, the rush to build hospitality is palpable. Lack of supply is so limited in the capital of Georgetown for example, that older assets like the Marriott is getting ADRs upwards of $450 per night. There was caution, however, if with new supply that rates would hold into the future.

3. Costa Rica continues to provide amazing lifestyle offerings with its “blue economy” however while there is much interest to finance projects in this location, identifying truly “shovel ready projects” seemed to be a top of mind concern for some of the participants.

4. Puerto Rico was highlighted by many as being the “safest and most lucrative hospitality market in the Caribbean today.” There was a general agreement that the U.S. island of Puerto Rico currently has very low supply of inventory (tourism GDP is at 6.75%) as well some very lucrative tax incentives under act 74. “In Puerto Rico, you get a 40% tax credit that you can sell, there is no other place in the Caribbean that gives you that kind of IRR boost”, quoted a major hotel investor.

During normal times, the Caribbean region is generally a challenge. The region is highly regulated and has a low risk tolerance from traditional lending. Today, the fear caused by the 2023 bank failures and new capital regulations under the Basel III agreements, should force traditional banks to hold more cash reserves. It was suggested that there is approximately 1 trillion dollars of U.S. commercial paper that will be coming due in the next 12-24 months. There was concern from the group that if interest rates remain at current levels, many borrowers will have to make-up their interest reserves with new equity. One banker in the group, who recently underwrote their entire portfolio stated, “I am not sure how many projects will be able to come to the table with more money.” There is hope, however, for the Fed’s recent announcement of three rates cuts in 2024. 

So, while many financial institutions have put their pencils down, other groups are proceeding cautiously today in the Caribbean. There is a consensus that there will be new opportunities in the future for private capital, family offices, private debt funds, and fintech to fill the 2024 Caribbean capital stack.

AG&T is a real estate development and consulting company based in Miami, Florida with a track record that spans over 52 real estate projects in Puerto Rico, the Caribbean, Central America, and the United States. Core services include Hospitality Development, Investment Sales, Strategic Planning, and Capital Advisory (Equity | Debt). www.agandt.com

First Look Inside Vie L’Ven, St. Maarten’s New Luxury Resort and Residences

First Look Inside Vie L’Ven, St. Maarten’s New Luxury Resort and Residences

 

Vie L’Ven, a forthcoming resort and residential property from Altree Developments, is bringing a new level of luxury to the Dutch side of the Caribbean island of St. Maarten.

The project is slated to make its debut in 2028, and Robb Report got an exclusive first look at the renderings. The development—the name translates to “life to live”—will feature a hotel component alongside a collection of fully furnished homes ranging from $800,000 to over $2 million. Altogether, the Cay Bay project will comprise a total of 280 units with 190 hotel rooms, 60 of which will be suites, and 90 private residences.

Vie L'Ven st. maarten residences
The open-air lobby entrance at Vie L’Ven, a forthcoming luxury residence in St. Maarten.BINYAN

“Vie L’Ven stands as a unique and unparalleled project in St. Maarten, distinguished by its singular luxury experience,” Zev Mandelbaum, CEO of Altree Developments, tells Robb Report. “With only one other five-star hotel catering to a similar clientele, Vie L’Ven’s presence fills a crucial gap, providing an exclusive destination that will undoubtedly be in high demand. The extensive amenities that will be offered at Vie L’Ven set it apart, establishing a standard of luxury unmatched anywhere else on the island.”

Vie L'Ven hotel and residences
The property will feature a five-star hotel and a selection of private homes for purchase.BINYAN

Drawing upon both French and Dutch cultures for inspiration, the oceanfront building will be designed by award-winning architectural firm HKS with interiors by Toronto’s Studio Munge. In addition, the developer tapped Sotheby’s International Realty to handle all the sales and marketing. The homes on offer will be available in several different layouts, ranging from one-, two-, and three-bedroom residences that measure from 600 to 6,000 square feet. Owners will also have the option of entering their home into the resort’s rental program for short- or long-term stays.

Naturally, residents will have access to all the hotel’s facilities, including its three swimming pools, signature restaurants, and 24/7 concierge services. The grounds will also sport a world-class fitness center and spa and can be reached via boat.

Vie L'Ven st maarten
An aerial view of the resort’s massive beachside swimming pool.BINYAN

“St. Maarten is a captivating island that seamlessly melds the cultural influences of both the French and Dutch, cultivating a distinctive European ambiance in the heart of the Caribbean,” adds Mandelbaum. “Embraced by natural beauty and tranquility, the island beckons with a plethora of attractions, from exhilarating nightlife to the allure of mega yachts. For those seeking a perfect blend of excitement and relaxation, St. Maarten promises a tapestry of unique experiences.”